Fed Decision Today: On June 18, 2025, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged—holding steady at 4.25–4.50% for the fourth straight meeting bloomberg.com+15apnews.com+15reuters.com+15wsj.com+3reuters.com+3fxstreet.com+3.
Dot Plot & Forecasts: All eyes are on the Fed’s “dot plot”, which shows officials’ projections. Markets want to know when rate cuts might happen—some expect only one cut, not two fxstreet.com.
Inflation concerns
Inflation hovers near the Fed’s 2% mark, but new risks could push it higher—especially from tariffs and oil .
Rising oil prices
Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East (Israel–Iran) threaten oil supply. A surge in oil raises consumer prices, piling pressure on inflation businessinsider.com+15apnews.com+15investors.com+15thetimes.co.uk+9reuters.com+9barrons.com+9.
Tariff threats
New import taxes by the Trump administration could also stoke inflation—another red flag for the Fed timesofindia.indiatimes.com+3businessinsider.com+3barrons.com+3.
Mixed economic data
Jobless claims are flat or rising—a sign jobs may be weakening investopedia.com+3apnews.com+3en.wikipedia.org+3wsj.com+2businessinsider.com+2marketwatch.com+2.
But housing starts dropped, hinting at softening due to higher mortgage rates wsj.com+2apnews.com+2marketwatch.com+2.
Tom Lee (Fundstrat): Sees a stock-market upside even if rates hold steady, citing a “soft” CPI and flat import prices. He forecasts the S&P 500 might hit record highs by year-end marketwatch.com.
Other economists: Some urge caution—saying the Fed may be behind curve on supporting jobs .
US Stocks: Broadly stable—S&P +0.1%, Dow +0.1%, Nasdaq –0.1% .
Treasury Yields:
10‑year T‑Note: ~4.36%
2‑year T‑Note: ~3.93% apnews.com.
Global Markets: Mixed signals—Japan’s Nikkei up, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down apnews.com.
Dot plot projections—how many cuts are expected in 2025?
Powell’s press conference—will tone be hawkish (tight) or dovish (easing)?
Oil price updates, as Middle East tensions unfold.
Economic snapshots—like unemployment numbers, housing, and inflation trends.
If you’re investing, your portfolio could shift based on Fed cues. A dovish tone may lift stocks and lower bond yields; a hawkish tone can do the opposite.
For everyday consumers, lower rates could mean cheaper loans and mortgages—but if rate cuts are delayed, borrowing may stay expensive.
Overall, it’s a balancing act for the Fed: easing too quickly risks inflation, but waiting too long might hurt jobs.
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